Posts Tagged ‘ get out of debt

The actual credit spread is explained by credit risk

57One typical reason for spread differentials between bonds of the same rating are liquidity considerations, particularly with respect to stress situations. enerally, bonds with a large issue size, issued recently and actively traded by several market makers tend to be the most liquid. Sometimes old bonds with a small issue size, too, trade at rather tight levels. This is often the case for typical “CDO (Collateralized debt obligations) names”, that is bonds that are often included when CDOs are set up. Another reason for wide spread differentials between issuers with similar credit quality is that many market participants are concerned with potential mark-to-market losses. Therefore, rather illiquid and more volatile bonds require a higher spread, even if spread volatility is rather due to market technicals than uncertainty regarding company fundamentals. Consequently, it is natural that credit spreads differ even for bonds and issuers with the same rating.

But more importantly, only a fraction of the actual credit spread is explained by credit risk, which in turn is reflected by the rating.

How to view the credit risk

139One example from the automotive sector is the large spread differential between Ford and Renault bonds with similar coupon and maturity.

Although the rating agencies assign approximately the same credit risk to both issuers, investors view the risk that is related to owning Ford bonds as significantly higher. It clearly outlines that Ford bonds have been much more volatile than Renault bonds between September 2003 and February 2004. When S&P put Ford on credit watch negative on October 21, 2003, spreads widened massively. Even if only very few investors feared a multiple notch downgrade of Ford from the then BBB rating, a 1 notch downgrade to BBB coupled with a negative outlook would have caused concerns about a later downgrade of Ford into high-yield. There were fears that the high-yield market would not be able to absorb the large volume of outstanding Ford bonds, and from a fundamental perspective that the company’s financing costs would rise, thus limiting the company’s financial flexibility massively. This example highlights that market technicals at least temporarily can be the dominant driver of credit spreads.

Key credit questions you should ask

Sales, marketing and brand management decisions can be as difficult as they are important. Below are some of the issues that may need to be considered on a regular basis.

  • How elastic are product prices? Could prices be increased without reducing revenue?
  • When is the next price rise planned? Could it happen sooner?
  • Are forces driving down prices in your market? What are they and how can you counter them?
  • Who fixes prices in your organisation? How do they do it and could the process be improved?
  • Are discounts targeted at the right sectors, or are they needlessly eroding profitability?
  • Could pricing be used more aggressively?
  • What are the barriers to entry in your market? How much of a barrier are they? Could you make it even harder for competitors to enter the market?
  • When is the best time to enter or leave the market? Can action be taken to discourage and reduce the effectiveness of competitors entering?
  • If you are planning to enter a new market, what makes your offer distinctive and likely to succeed?
  • Are other firms entering the market? If not, why?

Ways to build credit loyalty

If you build trust and rapport with customers by listening to, understanding and helping them, they are more likely to be loyal. And the more you are able to tailor information and special offer promotions to individual customers the more likely they are to remain loyal. The Holy Grail of marketing has long been the ability to meet the needs of individual customers to drive revenue and profit; this is now easier to achieve, especially online.

Try to build on the initial purchase so that it is not simply a once-only transaction but provides an opportunity to make further offers that will be attractive to the customer.