Posts Tagged ‘ Estate Planning

Apply your background knowledge to credit issues

4While our mental maps are useful in helping us apply what we already know, they are not so helpful when it comes to learning something new.We may think we know something based on an experience and transfer that knowledge to a new experience—only to discover that our mental map is outdated and no longer useful. In a new partnership, we have to be careful how we transfer information based on past history. This is especially challenging, though, since knowledge transference is a common reasoning technique.

Here’s the magic of mental maps. A client of mine, the owner of a grocery store chain in the Midwest, wanted to form a partnership with several contractors to rebuild a grocery store in a chic section of town.He needed to keep the store open during the rebuilding process. Much work was done to bring the store managers and contractors together to talk about the customers’ shopping experience during the remodeling. They wanted to figure out how they could partner not only to complete the extensive construction job, but also to keep people coming in during the remodeling. The reconstruction went off without a hitch. Although shopping was more of a challenge during that period, people continued to shop there—and, remarkably, sales dropped only a few percentage points. Considering the amount of work, this was an incredible feat.

How to view the credit risk

139One example from the automotive sector is the large spread differential between Ford and Renault bonds with similar coupon and maturity.

Although the rating agencies assign approximately the same credit risk to both issuers, investors view the risk that is related to owning Ford bonds as significantly higher. It clearly outlines that Ford bonds have been much more volatile than Renault bonds between September 2003 and February 2004. When S&P put Ford on credit watch negative on October 21, 2003, spreads widened massively. Even if only very few investors feared a multiple notch downgrade of Ford from the then BBB rating, a 1 notch downgrade to BBB coupled with a negative outlook would have caused concerns about a later downgrade of Ford into high-yield. There were fears that the high-yield market would not be able to absorb the large volume of outstanding Ford bonds, and from a fundamental perspective that the company’s financing costs would rise, thus limiting the company’s financial flexibility massively. This example highlights that market technicals at least temporarily can be the dominant driver of credit spreads.

Riding high: Harley-Davidson’s credit programme

From its beginnings in Milwaukee in 1909, Harley-Davidson has enjoyed a long history as America’s foremost motorbike manufacturer. However, by the early 1980s its reputation and business were in serious trouble following a sustained onslaught from affordable, high-quality Japanese machines produced by companies such as Honda and Kawasaki. Following a management buy-out, Harley-Davidson tackled its product-quality problems using the techniques of W. Edwards Deming (ironically, an American whose quality methods transformed Japanese manufacturing). The next challenge was to win back and maintain market share.

This the company achieved, once again becoming America’s leading motorbike manufacturer, with an amazing 90% of Harley-Davidson customers staying loyal to the company.

Understand which credit to attract

Once a profile of potential customers has been drawn up and their needs and wants identified, it is then possible to:

  • ensure that their needs are met and that the value proposition is compelling enough to sustain their interest;
  • decide how best to appeal to this audience, considering everything from tone of voice to frequency of contact;
  • decide how to engage the target market – when to ask for input, whether to offer discounts and generally how to ensure that the product offer is sufficiently attractive;
  • decide how to capture details of enquirers so that they can be contacted later.

This list is by no means exhaustive. The trick is to start focusing on the target customers and ways of attracting them. It is also worth considering two other things. First, it is important to understand not only which customers to attract, but also which ones you definitely do not want to lose. Second, remember that the customer who makes the purchase may not be the person who decides to make the purchase or the end user, as is often the case with purchases by businesses.